000 AXNT20 KNHC 192328 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 25W-27W. A QUASI STATIONARY 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N34.5W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE LOW WAS LEFT BEHIND BY THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 31W-34W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 39W-41W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 60W-65W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 5N16W 14N25W 9N40W 6N50W 6N56W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 9W-13W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 20W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 6N-7N BETWEEN 55W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ALABAMA NEAR 33N88W IS PRODUCING SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W WHILE 10 KT SE WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF S OF 29N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE SW GULF S OF 22N WHERE CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED. EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE E AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SURFACE RIDGING WITH A DRY STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER INLAND NE VENEZUELA. SEE ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS ALONG 20N74W 18N82W 15N85W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE COLD FRONT. GENTLE BREEZE TRADEWINDS ARE JUST S OF THE COLD FRONT. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. A QUASI-STATIONARY 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 78W-83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 64W-74W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N AND W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY WITH CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT W OF BERMUDA ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N66W AND EXTENDS SW TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E FROM 30N47W TO 22N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 44W-50W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 31N28W 27N30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 24N AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 55W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N40W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N9W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 13N20W. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ ESPECIALLY E OF 40W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA