000 AXNT20 KNHC 131143 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N44W TO 8N51W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS TILTED WITH SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS SPINNING OFF TO THE NE CAUGHT UP IN AN UPPER TROUGH. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING CYCLONIC CURVATURE EXTENDING AS FAR N AS 18N43W. THERE ARE NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 6N31W 10N47W 9N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 13N55W TO 8N56W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 51W-57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 12W-30W AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 43W-61W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF CONTINUING TO MEANDER BUT IS NOW MOSTLY INLAND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TEXAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF A LINE FROM 27N91W TO 23N97W TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE BASIN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER E ACROSS FLORIDA N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE ATLC. THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE N GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO NUDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN UPPER EASTERLY WINDS N OF A SHEAR AXIS THAT ENTERS THE S CARIBBEAN OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR SAINT LUCIA ALONG 12N78W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 79W-84W INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH A SWATH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W ALONG 17N78W INTO GULF OF HONDURAS TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N88W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS THE EXTREME SW WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 76W-82W. VERY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY FROM 11N-15N GIVING THAT AREA CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT REMAINS ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N79W CONTINUING ACROSS SE GEORGIA JUST N OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF 45W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM ACROSS THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO NEAR 27N44W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS S INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N25W S TO 14N33W THEN EXTENDS W AS A SHEAR AXIS ALONG 16N51W OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR SAINT LUCIA INTO THE S CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N37W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 28N38W THEN W TO 26N47W AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE E ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N25W EXTENDING ALONG 26N30W TO 25N35W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 24N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WITHIN 225 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. $$ WALLACE