000 AXNT20 KNHC 130514 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N46W TO 8N50W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS TILTED WITH SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS SPINNING OFF TO THE NE CAUGHT UP IN AN UPPER TROUGH. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING A CYCLONIC CURVATURE EXTENDING AS FAR N AS 18N42W. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS NOW INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. SEE THE MIATWDEP FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N25W 10N47W 9N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 13N54W TO 8N55W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 18W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 37W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF AND APPEARS TO MEANDERING OFF THE COAST TO INLAND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TEXAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COAST E OF 93W AND N OF 27N W OF 93W TO THE TEXAS COAST. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER E ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE ATLC. THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE N GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY OVER THE E GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH...A REMNANT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO SW ALONG 17N71W THEN NE TO THE NE COAST OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N77W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC AND E GULF OF MEXICO IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN UPPER EASTERLY WINDS N OF A SHEAR AXIS THAT ENTERS THE S CARIBBEAN OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR SAINT LUCIA TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 78W-82W INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH A SWATH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF 17N FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO THE PANAMA COSTA RICA BORDER AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 77W-83W. VERY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY FROM 11N-15N GIVING THAT AREA CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT REMAINS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N77W CONTINUING ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF 45W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM ACROSS THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO BEYOND 32N50W. A SURFACE HIGH RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS S INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N30W S TO 17N29W THEN EXTENDS W AS A SHEAR AXIS ALONG 14N40W OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR SAINT LUCIA INTO THE S CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N38W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 28N40W THEN W TO 27N51W AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE E ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N26W EXTENDING ALONG 26N32W TO 24N40W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 17N51W TO JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 34W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. $$ WALLACE