000 AXNT20 KNHC 101726 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 20N35W 9N39W MOVING NW 15-20 KT. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD AS WELL AS THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WHILE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 68W-71W INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE E PACIFIC REGION. SEE MIATWDEP FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 8N22W 11N37W 6N51W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 34W-40W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 11W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY EXTENDING ALONG 27N89W 26N93W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN THEN ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAINLY OVER THE NE US WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO STALL OVER THE GULF BUT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N93W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO S MEXICO NEAR 28N95W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE SW GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC DOMINATES THE E GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E EXTENDING FROM W PANAMA TO E CUBA NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THIS COMBINATION IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 83W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE E OF THE UPPER RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 78W-81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS ENJOYING FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 29N71W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 56W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A 1021 MB HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 31N66W. THE REMNANTS OF HENRI...A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N68W CONTINUING TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WITHIN 120 NM SW OF THE CENTER. A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N36W EXTENDING ALONG 25N43W TO 23N51W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 23N57W TO 23N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 41W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 41W-52W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1025 MB HIGH ENE OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N21W TO 20N30W. $$ WALLACE