000 AXNT20 KNHC 090605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI OCT 09 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC FOR GOES-12 IMAGERY...AND THROUGH 0530 UTC FOR METEOSAT-8 IMAGERY. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE 1013 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF HENRI IS NEAR 21N63W MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. EVEN SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS WEAKENING. THE REMNANT LOW CENTER IS IN AN AREA OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE. THIS REMNANT CENTER ALSO IS JUST TO THE WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 20N61W...AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 24W AND 29W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N MOVING WESTWARD 20 KT. WIDELY SCATTERERD MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EXPERIENCING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...AND CYCLONIC FLOW ON ITS SOUTHERN BOUNDARY. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 12N16W TO 12N24W TO 6N42W TO 6N55W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 28W AND 37W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WTIHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N40W 7N44W 8N53W 18N56W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE ENTIRE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 90W ARE BEING PUSHED WESTWARD IN THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N74W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NEAR 12N77W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA GUATEMALA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA... SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE COMPLETELY SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N60W 30N70W 29N78W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS E OF THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N74W. THE REMNANTS OF HENRI IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N44W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N36W 26N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N29W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N39W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N26W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N50W. $$ MT