000 AXNT20 KNHC 080002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED OCT 07 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM HENRI IS CENTERED NEAR 19.4N 58.6W AT 07/2100 UTC...OR ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. HENRI HAS AN EXPOSED CENTER WITH CONVECTION WELL E OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 53W-58W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 49W-53W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE...ALONG WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 68W-71W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N30W 6N40W 9N50W 9N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 20W-23W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 26W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N84W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WSW TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED 60 NM INLAND OVER THE GULF COAST STATES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF...WHILE 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 26N96W MOVING E. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE INLAND COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEE ABOVE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 73W-76W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 77W-83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 83W-88W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 76W-83W. RESIDUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W N OF 12N. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N87W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM HENRI REMAINS THE BIGGEST WEATHER MAKER OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N43W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N34W. BOTH HIGHS ARE PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N30W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N17W. $$ FORMOSA