000 AXNT20 KNHC 051044 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 05 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 41W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 46W-53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 41W-46W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 55W-59W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 79W-83W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N26W 9N42W 7N50W 9N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 12W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-28W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A WARM FRONT EXTENDS N OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NEAR 31N82W TO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N89W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS LOUISIANA AND TEXAS ALONG 30N96W 30N101W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS FRONT/LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N BETWEEN 87W-93W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N E OF 87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS GENERALLY CALM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG 25N. LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE WITH WINDS REACHING UP TO 20 KT IN THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 22N95W. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W...SEE ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC ACROSS HAITI TO NEAR 9N81W IS ENHANCING SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM 22N65W TO 17N66W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 61W-66W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE SW AND ERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 58W TO REACH THE E CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND OFF THE N COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 29N W OF 77W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL ZONE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE GULF STATES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N67W TO 27N72W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 65W-68W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT ALONG 32N61W TO 28N65W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE AXIS N OF 30N. BOTH SURFACE TROUGHS ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N62W TO HAITI NEAR 19N72W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN W OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N65W ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 17N66W GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 20N BETWEEN 61W-68W. A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS NEAR 31N54W. TO THE E...A COLD FRONT DIPS INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N42W T0 28N51W. NO SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 27N54W SUPPORTING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 15N26W. BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE E SIDE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 44W. $$ WALTON