000 AXNT20 KNHC 050603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON OCT 05 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH WWW UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. A 2342 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS ALSO DENOTES A LOW-LEVEL SE-NE WIND SHIFT. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 40W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 40W-48W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 52W-58W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS HAVE NOW DISSIPATED. HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEAR 15N78W...AND S OF 12N W OF 80W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N20W 8N30W 9N41W 8N62W.SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 11W-13W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-28W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 32W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NEAR 30N81W TO 32N89W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 31N92W EXTENDING ACROSS TEXAS TO NEAR 30N102W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS FRONT/LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N W OF 89W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 82W-89W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS GENERALLY CALM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG 25N. LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE WITH WINDS REACHING UP TO 20 KT IN THE WRN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 22N95W. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W...SEE ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 10N80W IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 66W-76W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N64W TO 14N62W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N BETWEEN 61W-64W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 57W TO REACH THE E CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DYING COLD FRONT CLIPS THE FAR W ATLC FROM 32N72W TO 30N79W. NO SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO 27N73W SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 30N-31N BETWEEN 66W-68W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W AXIS FROM 32N67W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA W OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THE E WITH AXIS ALONG 60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N65W...AND A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 34N52W. ELSEWHERE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 17N BETWEEN 45W-56W CENTERED NEAR 28N52W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 15N26W. BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE E SIDE OF THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES IN THE ATLC. $$ WALTON