000 AXNT20 KNHC 040009 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A BROAD SWATH OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 31W-37W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS IS A WELL DEFINED LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED IN THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 47W-52W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS NOTED TOGETHER WITH A SSMI DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 70W-73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO N OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 74W-77W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 9N32W 7N40W 9N50W 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 37W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A WARM FRONT IS JUST INLAND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SE TEXAS ALONG 30N83W 30N94W DRIFTING N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER S TEXAS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 96W-98W. 10-15 KT SURFACE SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 25N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 20N98W. NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT SOME CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST ON VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 68W-71W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 78W-82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER INLAND PANAMA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER INLAND NICARAGUA FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 84W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HAITI NEAR 17N74W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. EXPECT... THE TROPICAL WAVE TO SHIFT CONVECTION SLOWLY TO THE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 70W-76W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 28N43W 29N50W 26N55W PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 46W-50W. ANOTHER FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N21W 28N38W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 27N-28N BETWEEN 35W-38W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N42W. ANOTHER 1020 MB HIGH IS W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N21W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N56W T0 13N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 57W-59W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N56W. ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N FROM 20W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N23W. $$ FORMOSA