000 AXNT20 KNHC 030558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. REMAINING MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...AND CIMSS WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 24W-28W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS WELL AS A LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED IN CIMSS WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 42W-47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 42W-47W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 11N26W 10N28W 8N34W 10N43W 11N47W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 28W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NE GULF NEAR 30N88W AND CONTINUES W THEN SW ALONG 29N90W 28N95W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS AND NE GULF REMAINING N OF 28N. A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AS MOSTLY STABLE NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF ON ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER W/CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N104W. S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIGHT SELY SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN U.S. PLAINS BY SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NW CARIBBEAN IS RATHER TRANQUIL AND CALM TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO NLY WINDS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH ANCHORED OVER W/CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS ERN CUBA AND JAMAICA WITH AXIS ALONG 77W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF 77W IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN 70W-80W. ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN...FRESH SE TRADES ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS NE OF A LINE FROM GRENADA THROUGH 15N65W TO S/CENTRAL HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN E OF 80W...WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR W ATLC WATERS N OF 25N W OF 73W. THIS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO KEY WEST FLORIDA IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 76W. FARTHER TO THE E...ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS LOCATED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS ERN CUBA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NW TO 28N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 65W-75W. THIS ACTIVITY ALSO RESIDES ON THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N59W AND EXTENDS WSW TO 28N71W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 40N31W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 32N32W TO 17N50W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 29N BETWEEN 25W-42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. NEAR THE WRN EXTENT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE COMBINING TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 40W-52W. FARTHER SW...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N50W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N54W TO 14N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 51W-56W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N29W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE ERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N28W AND IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND ITCZ E OF 45W. $$ HUFFMAN