000 AXNT20 KNHC 022359 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ALONG 25W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE. HOWEVER...LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 21W-23W...AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 26W-29W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOW SUBSIDED. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 37W-43W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 10N21W 11N27W 9N33W 11N41W 10N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AT THE AFRICA COAST FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 14W-16W...AND FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 34W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM E OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W TO S OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS NEAR 27N97W CONTINUING ACROSS NRN MEXICO. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS THAT EXTENDS OVER THE NRN GULF N OF 28N. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOW DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN WITHIN 400 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFFECTING THE CENTRAL GULF AND NRN FLORIDA. DRY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 23N105W. A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS S FLORIDA AND INTO THE WRN ATLC. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NW CARIBBEAN IS CALM AND CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY SUBSIDENCE AIR ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS ERN CUBA WITH AXIS ALONG 77W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC ITCZ. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF PUERTO RICO FROM 20N65W TO 16N64W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVERING PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OFF THE NRN COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 28N W OF 77W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ERN CONUS. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N62W EXTENDING TO 27N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 69W-78W. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 77W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E WITH AXIS ALONG 67W. A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS NEAR 25N63W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 29N40W TO 17N50W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 51W-55W...AND BETWEEN 40W-47W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 19N52W TO 14N54W. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 16N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH DIPS INTO THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUING FROM A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 31N23W TO 28N39W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 13N27W. $$ WALTON