000 AXNT20 KNHC 011747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SLIGHT MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A SLIGHT CURVATURE OF THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 33W-39W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 21N MOVING NW 10 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. WAVE IS BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-17N E OF THE WAVE TO 45W AND CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 46W-52W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N22W 7N55W 9N64W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-19N E OF 16W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 19W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR MIAMI TO 25N85W DISSIPATING TO 26N91W GENERATING SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM JUST OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS TO ACROSS CUBA E OF 83W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH COVERS MUCH OF THE NE US AND EXTENDING AN AXIS S JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO THE NE GULF NEAR TAMPA TO AN UPPER LOW OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N82W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO NE TO OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS LEAVING MOST OF THE GULF UNDER DRY STABLE AIR AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N82W USHERING IN DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE AREA N OF 15N E OF 82W. SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EXTEND ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 77W-83W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM E PANAMA NE TO HISPANIOLA AND COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ JUST S OF PANAMA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BEING USHERED IN ON MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N62W EXTENDING SW TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N77W BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR MIAMI SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH COVERS MUCH OF THE NE US AND EXTENDS AN AXIS S JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE FRONT W OF 75W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT W OF 65W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA ALONG 25N60W THEN N TO BEYOND 32N56W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BROAD AREA FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 44W-62W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N58W THROUGH A SMALL LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRL NEAR 17N60W TO BARBADOS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF 16N. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N49W S INTO THE TROPICS TO 16N53W WHICH IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED LOW IS N OF THE REGION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE NE ATLC TO 26N BETWEEN 20W-40W AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N79W 31N34W THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N42W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N22W ALONG 28N32W TO 28N43W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH E OF 30W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC THROUGH A SERIES OF HIGHS...A 1020 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS SW TO A 1019 MB HIGH 21N34W NE TO A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 25N62W. $$ WALLACE