000
AXNT20 KNHC 011048
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W
TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W TO THE SOUTH
OF 21N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 42W AND 51W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 
18W. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
4N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W...AND FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W
AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST NEAR 28N81W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 
24N84W...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE 
DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH IS PUSHING THE FEW REMAINING 
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOWERS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE 
AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM MIAMI TO 25N86W IN THE 
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA LITERALLY IS 
PUSHED ALONG TO THE EAST BY THE RUSH OF AIR FROM THE VORTICITY
AND CYCLONIC FLOW THAT ARE AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 
24N84W. MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W... 
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE RUSH OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE GULF OF 
MEXICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REMNANT AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW 
HEADING TOWARD HISPANIOLA FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS LOST ITS 
CYCLONIC CHARACTERISTICS. BROAD WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 
COVERS THE AREA. STRONG SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N MOST 
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN EASTERN U.S.A. COASTAL TROUGH 
PASSES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO FLORIDA
AND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 24N84W ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 
32N63W TO 28N70W TO 26N77W IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO THE 
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 25N AND MIAMI. A STATIONARY 
FRONT CONTINUES FROM MIAMI INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO 
25N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN AT LEAST 400 NM
TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N56W 25N58W TO CUBA NEAR 21N77W. THE TROUGH THAT IS THE 
REMNANT OF T.D. EIGHT FROM FIVE DAYS AGO CONTINUES AS A TROUGH 
ALONG 57W/58W FROM 10N TO 21N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 
19N TO 21N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 
A 25N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 10N50W...ON TOP OF THE 
50W/51W TROPICAL WAVE. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS 
SPINNING AROUND A 37N29W CYCLONIC CENTER. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC 
FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 29N22W TO 27N29W. 
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N29W TO 27N37W AND 28N45W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 26N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. A SMALL CYCLONIC CENTER ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 25N42W. SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 23N
BETWEEN 41W AND 45W.  

$$
MT