000
AXNT20 KNHC 010601
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND...GOES-12 SATELLITE 
IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC AND METEOSAT-8 IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W
TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W TO THE SOUTH
OF 19N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AFRICA 
COAST FROM 6N TO 9N...FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W...FROM 
3N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 41W...AND FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 48W 
AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN 
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N85W...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH 
IS PUSHING THE FEW REMAINING SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOWERS 
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES 
THROUGH THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA TO 23N84W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA LITERALLY IS 
PUSHED ALONG TO THE EAST BY THE RUSH OF AIR FROM THE VORTICITY
AND CYCLONIC FLOW THAT ARE AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 
25N85W. A REMNANT AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN OLD UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD 
HISPANIOLA. AN EARLIER LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM ONE 
END OF HISPANIOLA TO THE OTHER END HAS WEAKENED TO JUST ONE
AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN MONA PASSAGE
AND ONE AREA OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN HAITI.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN 
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N85W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...TO 30N70W TO 25N80W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N80W TO 23N84W IN THE 
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE 
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W UNDER AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE TROUGH THAT IS THE REMNANT OF T.D. EIGHT
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO CONTINUES AS A TROUGH FROM 16N TO 22N
BETWEEN 56W AND 57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 15N TO 25N 
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS 
SPINNING AROUND A 37N31W CYCLONIC CENTER. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC 
FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W,
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GO FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN
30W AND 40W.  

$$
MT