000
AXNT20 KNHC 300605
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND...GOES-12 SATELLITE 
IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC AND METEOSAT-8 IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W
TO THE SOUTH OF 13N. ANY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 11N
BETWEEN 44W AND 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN
42W AND 46W...IN THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 13N17W 10N23W 8N34W TO 12N48W INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N63W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
5N TO 7N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER
THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W...
AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 48W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE U.S.A. AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 100W. THIS 
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR VERO BEACH/FT.PIERCE...
TO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR 27N. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM
25N TO 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W. BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES 
ON TOP OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 14N73W AND 10N77W. 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE 
TROUGH...TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 11N81W...EVENTUALLY SWEEPING ACROSS 
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. SHOWERS FROM 10N TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST 
OF NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SPREADING 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE U.S.A AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 100W...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS 
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR VERO BEACH/FT.PIERCE. THE OLD COLD
FRONT FROM 24 HOURS AGO OR SO IS NOW A TROUGH ALONG THE LINE
FROM BERMUDA TO 29N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 25N80W.
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 29N78W...AND TO THE NORTH
OF 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 62W AND 66W UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N57W TO 25N57W
TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
IS THE REMNANT OF T.D. EIGHT IS ALONG 50W/51W FROM 15N TO 20N.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 
30N25W TO 28N30W 28N36W 29N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

$$
MT