000
AXNT20 KNHC 291053
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 42W/43W 
AT 29/0000 UTC HAS BEEN LOCATED ALONG 38W/39W TO THE SOUTH
OF 14N...BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOVING WESTWARD
10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ COVER THE AREA FROM 7N TO 16N
BETWEEN 34W AND 40W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W TO THE SOUTH OF
16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION 
IN WESTERN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS
DISSIPATED.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 11N15W 8N21W TO 10N33W 9N42W 8N53W 9N56W INTO NORTHEASTERN 
VENEZUELA NEAR 8N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W...AND 
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N47W 9N52W 12N57W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 14W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE U.S.A. AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 90W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES ON TOP OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 28N.
A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. AREAS OF RAIN
AND COMPARATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALONG AND TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONT. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES 
ON TOP OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 13N77W AND 13N84W
IN NORTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA. THE TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS
NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA...TO THE UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS MOVING ACROSS COASTAL MEXICO THAT IS 
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN EL SALVADOR AND IN WESTERN HONDURAS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SPREADING BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT
IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH...
TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE U.S.A...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 24N 
BETWEEN 70W AND 90W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 27N75W JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 27N85W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE 
AREA FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS COVER THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 24N TO 27N 
BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH 
PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 28N35W TO A 29N54W CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 
30N60W 23N63W...ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N30W TO 30N34W 29N40W 29N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM TO THE 
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF 62W. A MIDDLE 
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 22N37W TO 10N45W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 21N TO 22N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
39W. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS THE REMNANT OF T.D. EIGHT IS ALONG 
46W/47W FROM 10N TO 20N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 34W
FROM 7N TO 15N. THIS TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD.
 THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
FROM SIX HOURS AGO CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE AND MORE TO
THE EAST...AND IT IS LESS AND LESS OVER WATER WITH TIME.

$$
MT