000 AXNT20 KNHC 280554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND...GOES-12 SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC AND METEOSAT-8 IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N31W 13N33W 8N33W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 15N BETWEEN 28W AND 34W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM COLOMBIA'S GULF OF URABA TO 12N80W PROBABLY ARE MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ AND THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SIERRA LEONE TO 8N13W 11N26W 12N32W 8N46W TO 10N63W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE U.S.A. TO THE EAST OF 90W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR TAMPA...INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N95W 28N90W 29N83W BEYOND 31N79W WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 93W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...MOVING AWAY FROM THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA TOWARD THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF CUBA TO THE WEST OF 81W...IN AN AREA OF CONFLUENT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 12N80W...SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NICARAGUA...TOWARD THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS EXITING SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA AND MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM COLOMBIA'S GULF OF URABA TO 12N80W PROBABLY ARE MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ AND THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 68W...RELATED TO THE ITCZ. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE U.S.A. TO THE EAST OF 90W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR TAMPA... INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N80W 28N78W 30N77W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS BEYOND 32N72W. A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO A 28N54W CYCLONIC CENTER AND TO 24N65W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 29N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N50W TO 29N55W AND 30N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 21N39W TO 15N40W TO 11N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 15N40W TO 23N41W IS THE REMNANT OF T.D. EIGHT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 26N26W TO 24N33W. NO SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. $$ MT