000 AXNT20 KNHC 260001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 31.6W AT 25/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 505 MILES...815 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 29W-34W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 61W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD PATTERN IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 63W-67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 57W-62W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N26W 16N31W 10N40W 9N50W 9N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ON THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 19W-23W...FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 36W-39W...AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 49W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 25N96W 18N94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE FRONT FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 95W-98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 89W-92W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER S MEXICO FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 90W-96W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE SW FLORIDA COAST NEAR NAPLES. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N87W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER TEXAS AND THE W GULF...AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. EXPECT...THE STATIONARY FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 68W-73W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA EXTENDING 30 NM SOUTH. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALSO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N72W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER IF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N63W 25N71W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 26N58W 23N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 51W-53W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 60W-65W. ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N AND E OF 55W TO W AFRICA. TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGHS ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 11N47W AND 14N18W. EXPECT T.D. EIGHT TO BE A WEAK FEATURE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA