000 AXNT20 KNHC 251756 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N28W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 16N30W TO 10N33W...DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME AREAS OF WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS...COVER THE AREA FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W. A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N ALONG 60W HAS REACHED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SHEARING THE TOPS OF THE CLOUDS THAT ARE IN THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 14N17W TO 13N28W TO 12N34W 9N46W 9N56W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W...AND FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 21W AND 22W. MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR THAT PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND A CENTER THAT IS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A RIDGE THAT GOES FROM THE CENTER TO THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS/NORTHEASTERN MEXICO BORDER. A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO 26N95W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE WEST OF 93W TO THE SOUTH OF 27N...AND IN SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW EVERYWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. ONE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER IS JUST OFF THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE REST OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW HAS BEEN PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA OF CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM THE BORDER OF NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM 20N80W SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 30N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 26N67W AND SOUTHWESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER BELIZE AND THE EAST CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W...IN SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND COASTAL WATERS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK WITH ONLY THE 1012 MB ISOBAR CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A WELL- ESTABLISHED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 55W. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N62W TO 26N67W...SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSE THROUGH BERMUDA TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE THAT IS NEAR 29N66W TO 24N70W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 17N TO 28N BETWEEN 41W AND 54W. TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 48W AND 50W...AND FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 53W AND 54W. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EVENTUALLY EXITS THAT AREA AND MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF POSSIBLE ITCZ PRECIPITATION THAT GOES FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SHEARING THE TOPS OF THE CLOUDS IN THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF 26W. $$ MT