000 AXNT20 KNHC 240002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS UP WELL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A BAND OF DRY AIR AND DUST HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW HOWEVER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 20W-25W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING W AT 15 KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD PATTERN IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 43W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 46W-49W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N16W 9N26W 8N35W 12N47W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 8W-27W...8N-9N BETWEEN 40W-42W...AND FROM 45W-53W BETWEEN 9W-12W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N95W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO THE SW GULF NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 22N98W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW AND FRONTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 88W-91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA W OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE SW FLORIDA COAST NEAR FT MYERS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER TEXAS AND THE SW GULF...AND OVER S FLORIDA AND CUBA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE FURTHER S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND THE STATIONARY FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA PROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N... AND OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N63W 24N65W WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 54W-63W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 23N52W 16N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 57W-59W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N65W. ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N AND E OF 50W TO W AFRICA. TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGHS ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N50W AND 16N30W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA