000 AXNT20 KNHC 231805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N...JUST ANALYZED ON THE SURFACE MAP AT 23/1200 UTC. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREAS FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W. RANDOM PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATERS JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 19W AND 24W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS ABOUT 250 NM TO THE EAST- SOUTHEAST OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 48W AND 59W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. ...THE ITCZ... 11N21W 8N28W 8N36W 10N43W 11N46W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W...FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W...AND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR FLORIDA...TO CUBA...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...TO CUBA TO THE WEST OF 80W... TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND FINALLY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. INDIVIDUALLY SEPARATE AREAS OF CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGHS MAKE ONE LONG CHAIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WERE THE REMNANTS OF FRED. THAT LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS DISSIPATED FINALLY NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER. SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND A LITTLE BIT OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND IN CUBA TO THE EAST OF 80W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WATERS TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVING INLAND FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO MEXICO THE MEXICO COAST ABOUT 40 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WATERS TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS THAT ARE ABOUT 150 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...IN PUERTO RICO...AND FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT EXTEND FROM 28N65W TO 20N69W TO 12N64W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH EXTEND FROM 28N65W TO 20N69W TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 54W AND 64W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GO FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS FROM A SMALLER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N56W AND EXTENDS TO 19N58W. THE AREA OF 19N58W IS SURROUNDED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N68W 28N64W 25N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 50W/51W FROM 14N TO 22N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N21W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W. $$ MT