000
AXNT20 KNHC 170605
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC FOR GOES-12 IMAGERY...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0500 UTC FOR METEOSAT-8 IMAGERY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W
TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W TO THE SOUTH 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

14N17W 13N23W 9N30W 8N40W 8N50W INTO GUYANA NEAR 6N58W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS TO THE EAST OF 26W...AND WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W AND 44W.ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM 
ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N14W 8N26W...BECOMING ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N26W 7N34W 8N42W 11N55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N101W.
A COLD FRONT STRADDLES THE TEXAS COAST FROM THE UPPER COAST TO 
THE MIDDLE COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE IN MEXICO FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN THE COAST AND 100W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE
FROM 22N97W BEYOND 30N87W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST
OF THE 30N87W FLORIDA PANHANDLE LINE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N72W. 
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF 
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W AND 
80W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM COASTAL 
VENEZUELA TO PUERTO RICO BETWEEN THE WATERS JUST TO THE WEST OF 
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND 70W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 17N TO COASTAL 
SOUTHERN CUBA BETWEEN WESTERN HAITI AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COASTAL EL SALVADOR NEAR
MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 28N73W TO THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N76W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 73W AND 
77W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 28N70W TO 
21N76W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 
21N51W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N TO 31N BETWEEN 
46W AND 62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N52W 23N55W 26N57W. 
THIS TROUGH IS THE LAST REMNANT OF FRED. THE COMPARATIVELY
STRONGEST PRECIPITATION IS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS 
FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE 
ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 46W AND 62W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N16W TO 28N26W 26N29W TO 21N32W TO TO 
18N36W TO 10N41W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 25W 
AND 30W. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N35W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W...
AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 47W AND 53W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MIDDLE OF 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTH OF IT AND MORE UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF IT.

$$
MT