000
AXNT20 KNHC 161103
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF
JAMAICA MOVING WEST ABOUT 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION JUST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
10N14W 8N26W...BECOMING ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN
240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N26W 7N34W 8N42W 11N55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD...
THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO MEXICO NEAR 24N101W.
A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N95W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO 
UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH IS FROM THE 
SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA THE CENTRAL
GULF WATERS TO THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES BETWEEN THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE MEXICO COAST OF THE NORTHERN 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ABOUT 150 NM
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND A SMALL
PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 63W AND 73W. 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM THE VENEZUELA 
COASTAL WATERS TO PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. OTHER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W 
INCLUDING ON TOP OF BARBADOS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA AND THE 
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC CENTER.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN HAITI
AND 84W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/TROUGH. THE SURFACE FEATURE IS MADE UP OF A 1012 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N73W...WITH A WARM FRONT GOING FROM 
THE LOW CENTER TO 32N71W...AND A TROUGH THAT CONTINUES FROM THE 
LOW CENTER TO 26N74W AND TO CUBA NEAR 21N78W. SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N75W 27N72W BEYOND 31N71W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N30W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS 
THE AREA FROM 23N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 27N45W TO A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 
19N51W TO 12N55W. THIS FEATURE ENGULFS THE 1013 MB REMNANT LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER OF FRED. THE 1013 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
OF FRED IS NEAR 19N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND
55W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N31W ABOUT 330 NM 
TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
COVER THE AREA FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 23W AND 37W.

$$
MT