000
AXNT20 KNHC 160602
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC FOR GOES-12 IR3 IMAGERY...AND THROUGH
0530 UTC FOR METEOSAT8 IMAGERY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N MOVING WEST ABOUT 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION JUST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

ALONG 11N14W TO 9N27W 9N40W 10N56W INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF 7N12W 8N26W 6N40W 10N47W 11N60W. STRONG SHOWERS
IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS COVER THE AREA FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN THE 
COAST OF AFRICA AND 19W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD...
THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO MEXICO NEAR 24N101W.
A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N95W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO 
UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH IS FROM THE 
SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 24N
TO 27N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ABOUT 110 NM
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND A SMALL
PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 63W AND 73W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 59W AND 
65W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC CENTER. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/TROUGH. THE SURFACE FEATURE IS MADE UP OF A 1012 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N73W...WITH A WARM FRONT GOING FROM 
THE LOW CENTER TO 32N71W...AND A TROUGH THAT CONTINUES FROM THE 
LOW CENTER TO 26N74W AND TO CUBA NEAR 22N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N76W
27N72W BEYOND 32N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE IN THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF JAMAICA BETWEEN HAITI AND THE ISLE 
OF YOUTH OF CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 31N30W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 23N BEYOND 32N 
BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 
26W AND 28W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 27N45W TO
A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 19N51W TO 12N55W. THIS FEATURE ENGULFS
THE 1013 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF FRED. THE 1013 MB 
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF FRED IS NEAR 20N48W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA 
FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER IS NEAR 15N30W ABOUT 300 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N 
BETWEEN 29W AND 32W.

$$
MT