000
AXNT20 KNHC 151945 CCA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2009

CORRECTED FOR LOW POSITION NEAR CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING 
WEST ABOUT 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION 
JUST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN SIERRA LEONE AND 
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
5N-10N BETWEEN 13W-23W...AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 29W-32W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N LOUISIANA NEAR 32N92W. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 
30N92W 28N92W 26N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE 
FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 
19N-20N BETWEEN 95W-97W. FURTHER E...SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 
84W-86W. THE GULF HAS MOSTLY 5-10 KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS W OF 
THE FRONT...AND 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS E OF THE FRONT. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
NEAR 23N88W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER FLORIDA 
WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND S TEXAS. 
EXPECT...THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.    

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE REACHING THE NE CUBAN COAST FROM 21N-22N 
BETWEEN 76W-78W DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND 
BAHAMAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF PUERTO 
RICO NEAR 17N66W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS LOW IS 
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD 
AND LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 57W-63W. EXPECT... 
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N73W. A WARM FRONT 
EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO BEYOND 32N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO E CUBA NEAR 23N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE SYSTEM. A 1013 MB LOW IS 
OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 
46W-48W. ANOTHER 1014 MB LOW IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 
16N29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THIS LOW 
FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 29W-32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N49W. A LARGE UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 17N29W. 
EXPECT...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE TWO 
SURFACE LOWS OVER THE E ATLANTIC BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER 
PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

$$
FORMOSA