000
AXNT20 KNHC 150507
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W TO THE SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WEST ABOUT 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE 
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THANKS TO THE CYCLONIC CENTER 
THAT IS ABOUT 60 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.

...THE ITCZ...

10N13W 9N25W 8N30W 9N40W 10N53W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA 
NEAR 9N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N13W 7N35W 10N50W 12N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL 
LOUISIANA INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO MEXICO NEAR 
20N100W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO FROM 21N 
TO 23N BETWEEN THE MEXICO COAST AND 101W. A COLD FRONT HAS 
EMERGED FROM THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COASTAL 
WATERS...FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 360 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N TO FLORIDA BETWEEN
83W AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ABOUT 60 NM TO THE 
SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER 
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND A SMALL PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 
180 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED 
TROUGH RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH 
BELIZE AND BEYOND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. UPPER 
LEVEL NORTHERLY-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN SOUTHERN HAITI
AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT 
IS NEAR 29N72W. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO 24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 75W 
AND 76W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 27N69W TO 24N73W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N29W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER TO 29N40W TO A SMALL 23N46W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 12N48W.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE 
AREA FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 41W AND 46W. THE 1012 MB REMNANT 
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF FRED IS NEAR 19N42W. A SECOND 1012 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS 
NEAR 15N25W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA 
FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W.

$$
MT