000 AXNT20 KNHC 092341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED SEP 09 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 33.3W AT 09/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 595 MILES...955 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT MAKING FRED A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 30W-35W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 68W-72W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 84W-91W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N15W 16N29W 12N40W 6N57W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 1011N-13N BETWEEN 18W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 43W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N AND W OF 87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER S FLORIDA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 94W-96W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N100W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO THE SE GULF. EXPECT...SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA BETWEEN 75W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 79W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER BARBADOS NEAR 13N59W. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W... FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N72W AND EXTENDS SW TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N60W. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N43W 26N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N63W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 61W-66W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 24N41W 15N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 27N AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 24N67W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NW OF THE CENTER IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION NEAR THE N BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N51W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 21N48W. FURTHER S...UPPER LEVEL HIGHS IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 9N44W...OVER HURRICANE FRED...AND NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 18N23W. EXPECT FRED TO MOVE NW AND BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA