000 AXNT20 KNHC 082333 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE SEP 08 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED ON 08/2100 UTC NEAR 12.1N 29.8W...OR ABOUT 410 MILES...655 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FRED IS MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 28W-32W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 62W FROM 8N-18N MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THE WAVE BROKE AWAY FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NOW CENTERED NEAR 20N58W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS...HOWEVER ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 57W-59W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W S OF 19N MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF JAMAICA FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 77W-79W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 17N17W 15N25W 9N32W 7N40W 8N50W 10N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 24W-30W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 30W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N AND W OF 92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER S FLORIDA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 19N95W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO THE SE GULF. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER N FLORIDA N OF 27N. EXPECT...SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE NE AND N FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA BETWEEN 75W-84W. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER PANAMA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 78W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TRINIDAD NEAR 11N61W. EXPECT ...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N...AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 12N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N75W AND EXTENDS SW TO SOUTH FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N55W. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER SE ALONG 32N38W 28N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 23N39W 15N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 37W-39W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 27N AND W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 23N68W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 70W-72W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N55W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N37W. FURTHER S...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 16N30W. EXPECT THE SPECIAL FEATURE TO MOVE NW AND BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA