000 AXNT20 KNHC 081641 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE SEP 07 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1615 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED AT 08/1500 UTC IS NEAR 11.9N 28.6W...OR ABOUT 345 MILES/555 KM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FRED IS MOVING WEST 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 27W AND 29W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W FROM 10N TO 17N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS SEPARATED FROM THE REST OF THE WAVE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. SHOWERS THAT COVER THE AREA FROM MARTINIQUE TO ANTIGUA MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE BASE REACHES 16N60W. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 19N57W. A TROUGH EXISTS FROM 22N56W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 17N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N61W 18N57W 22N54W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS NOT DISTINCT TO THE EAST OF T.S. FRED. IT STARTS MORE OR LESS NEAR 7N29W AND CONTINUES TO 5N40W 7N50W 9N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N29W 5N33W 6N40W 5N50W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 7N TO 17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA TO GEORGIA TO NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 101W ALL THE WAY INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 17N93W TO 22N95W. THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SIX HOURS AGO WERE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W HAVE DISSIPATED. THE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND ENERGY HAVE MOVED TO THE NORTH AND RE-FORMED AS MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS...TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT HUGS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM THE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...TO ALL OF COASTAL TEXAS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W... AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 70W... LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 70W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND A TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N68W 23N69W TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N80W BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N76W 27N78W ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TOP OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM MARTINIQUE TO ANTIGUA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING AT THE BASE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT REACHES 16N60W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 60W... A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N36W TO 27N40W TO 23N44W TO 20N50W TO 16N60W AT THE EDGE OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 24N52W 28N44W BEYOND 32N36W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N10W CYCLONIC CENTER TO A 27N20W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 23N24W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE EAST OF 40W...INCLUDING ON TOP OF T.S. FRED. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 39W/40W FROM 14N TO 22N DRIFTING WEST. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. $$ MT