000
AXNT20 KNHC 072338
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N 24.5W AT 
07/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 160 MILES...255 KM...SOUTH OF THE 
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N 
BETWEEN 24W-28W.        

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W FROM 11N-21N MOVING 
WEST AT 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS 
NEAR 18N52W.  ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 48W-55W. 

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W SOUTH OF HAITI MOVING 
WEST AT 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS 
WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 17N17W 14N23W 7N30W 8N40W 15N50W 
11N63W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES 
AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 28W-32W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
5-10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 
GOOD AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 
91W-97W...AND FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 85W-90W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 
22N95W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE TO THE NE GULF. EXPECT... 
CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER S TEXAS..THE GULF...AND S FLORIDA FOR 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 
18N-20N BETWEEN 68W-72W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA BETWEEN 
76W-84W. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
INLAND OVER NICARAGUA FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 84W-86W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W 
OF 70W AND N OF 10N. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N66W. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE 
N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N...AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N77W AND 
EXTENDS SW TO SOUTH FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE 
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 24N37W 17N38W. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED 
ON THE TROUGH NEAR 21N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE TROUGH. A 1020 MB HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
33N27W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC NEAR 23N69W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N OF THE CENTER IS 
PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 
65W-70W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
26N42W. FURTHER S...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 
14N32W. EXPECT THE SPECIAL FEATURE TO MOVE W AND BE THE 
DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.  

$$
FORMOSA