000 AXNT20 KNHC 071812 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN SEP 06 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11.5N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WAVE. THE CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W FROM 13N TO 21N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ONE CELL ARE WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 18N51.5W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W TO THE SOUTH OF HAITI MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS NOT DISTINCT TO THE EAST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 21W/22W...AND NOT DISTINCT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE 50W/51W TROPICAL WAVE. THE BEST SEGMENT FOR THE ITCZ AT THIS MOMENT IS 7N25W 7N35W 10N42W 13N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A BIT OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THAT NOW RUNS FROM 32N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS NEAR THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SIX HOURS AGO WERE FROM MEXICO TO 20N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 90W AND TEXAS AND MEXICO...AND TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 87W TO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS NEAR 27N98W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 70W... LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO NORTH OF 32N AROUND A TROUGH FROM 32N67W TO 26N69W TO 22N72W TO 17N81W TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS NEAR 14N85W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 63W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N70W IN THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND TO CUBA NEAR 21N78W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...ALONG 31N79W 28N79W CURVING TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA COAST AND 24N82W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM CUBA BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W...SOME EVEN COASTAL AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FLORIDA. SOME SHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN HAITI AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS THAT COVER THE AREA FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N80W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT MOSTLY COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA THAT IS AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 60W... A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH GOES FROM 30N37W TO 26N43W TO 22N54W 16N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 22N54W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 38W AND 52W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N11W CYCLONIC CENTER TO A 29N22W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 30N31W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. $$ MT