000 AXNT20 KNHC 070003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN SEP 06 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N19W. A LARGE SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM IS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA W OF 25W BETWEEN 5N-19N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 17W-22W. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ. A SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM IS ALSO NOTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N47W. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS HOWEVER NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 16N-17N BETWEEN 47W-49W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 20N MOVING W 20 KT. SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS DRY AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE S OF 15N. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N20W 8N24W 12N40W 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS ABOVE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 16W-24W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW GULF WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LINE 30N84W 22N95W. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER INLAND FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 20N94W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE TO THE NE GULF. EXPECT... CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W...AND OVER S FLORIDA AND W CUBA...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER HISPANIOLA ALONG 22N72W 17N73W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 69W-73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 74W-85W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PANAMA FROM 8N-9N BETWEEN 78W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER CUBA NEAR 22N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N73W. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 16N...AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N78W AND EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 76W-79W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N55W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N69W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N50W. FURTHER S...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 18N25W. EXPECT THE SPECIAL FEATURE TO MOVE W AND BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA