000 AXNT20 KNHC 061804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN SEP 06 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W FROM 10N TO 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 33W/34W FROM 16N TO 24N. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 19N. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W FROM 12N TO 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W. THE CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS LOW. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT EARLIER WAS MAINTAINING ITSELF FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W HAS WEAKENED IN INTENSITY. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ARE IN THAT AREA. ...THE ITCZ... 18N16W 16N28W 11N34W 9N45W 7N56W. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N31W 9N42W 7N48W 10N58W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N87W 28N88W 26N90W 24N94W 21N97W. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING AND PRECIPITATION IS DISSIPATING TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW HAS BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS...AND OVERTAKING WHAT WAS AN AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH TO THE EAST OF 90W ONLY 24 HOURS AGO. THE AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT 24 HOURS AGO COVERED THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W NOW COVERS PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS AND 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE WATERS AND REACHING THE BAHAMAS WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N73W 23N77W 24N79W 26N78W 29N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG 31N79W TO NORTHERN FLORIDA...IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM FLORIDA TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...CURVING ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO 25N96W IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS PRETTY MUCH MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER...AND THEN SHOOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS THE REMNANT OF ERIKA IS ALONG 21N69W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE... TO 15N69W. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 26N65W ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER GRAZES THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W...AND FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. SOME OF THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING WITH TIME DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W AT THE NICARAGUA COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 83W FROM COSTA RICA TO 15N. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 34N AROUND A 30N68W CYCLONIC CENTER. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW HAS BEEN COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 55W OR SO FOR THE LAST THREE OR FOUR DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 21N65W...FROM 25N TO 30N...AND FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N77W 26N78W 24N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 26N68W 23N70W TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER NEAR 19N72W REPRESENTS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA. $$ MT