000 AXNT20 KNHC 052345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT SEP 05 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 22N MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 29W-32W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 20N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N. A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS AND N OF 10N SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 39W-44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 38W-43W. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR BARBADOS IS ALONG 59W S OF 17N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS A MAXIMUM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS...HOWEVER NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 18N24W 15N36W 14N41W 8N50W 6N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 12W-16W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 30W-38W...AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 46W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF ALONG 30N91W 25N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 90W-100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 86W-90W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. EXPECT...CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W...AND OVER S FLORIDA AND W CUBA...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 22N72W 16N72W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 71W-73W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 62W-66W. ELSEWHERE...A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 82W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEAR 15N74W. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 16N...AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N75W AND EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR COCOA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 29N64W 24N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1023 MB HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N52W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N66W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N40W. FURTHER S...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 17N55W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR 19N18W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO TO MOVE W AND BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA