000 AXNT20 KNHC 291058 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DANNY HAS WEAKENED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF DANNY WAS NEAR 34.3N 74.6W...OR ABOUT 80 MILES/130 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 540 MILES/875 KM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. DANNY RAPIDLY IS BECOMING ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS OVER NORTH CAROLINA. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST NEAR 30 TO 35 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS FROM THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 72W FROM 25N BEYOND 32N. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N37W 11N39W 6N41W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N39W ALONG THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 3N TO 16N BETWEEN 33W AND 51W. THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE NEWEST TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 28W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS CLOSE TO THE WAVE. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AND/OR ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 8N TO 22N BETWEEN 78W AND 90W. ...THE ITCZ... 12N23W 12N36W 9N45W 9N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM GEORGIA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS BECOME EVEN MORE AND MORE STRETCHED ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE... STILL ENDING IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO ACROSS 90W...UNDER BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREA...DECREASING IN QUANTITY MORE AND MORE ALONG THE ENTIRE TEXAS COAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A 17N82W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 8N TO 25N BETWEEN 77W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA TO CLOSE TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA...AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE MOVE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS HAITI AND BEYOND. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND A 30N46W CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 23N TO 35N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND A 27N23W CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 23N TO 33N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. $$ MT