000 AXNT20 KNHC 290603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS NEAR 32.6N 75.2W OR ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM...SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 765 MILES...1230 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AT 29/0300 UTC. DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY TCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES...300 KM...SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 665 MILES...1075 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N72W 32N74W. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N37W 11N40W 6N41W. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N40W. MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 38W AND 49W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE NEWEST TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 26W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN OUR AREA. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AND/OR ALREADY MOVED THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 8N TO 22N BETWEEN 78W AND 90W. ...THE ITCZ... 14N17W 12N27W 9N47W 11N56W 9N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 36W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 28N87W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS LIFTING OUT NORTHEASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO ACROSS 90W...UNDER BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREA...AND IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 27N TO 28N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 98W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A 17N82W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 8N TO 25N BETWEEN 77W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NORTHEASTWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF COSTA RICA...AND FROM NORTHERN COASTAL CUBA TO ANDROS ISLAND AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE MOVE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS HAITI AND BEYOND. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND A 31N45W CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 24N TO 35N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND A 27N22W CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 24N TO 33N BETWEEN 16W AND 26W. $$ MT