000 AXNT20 KNHC 272356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS CENTERED NEAR 28.0N 73.3W AT 28/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 515 MILES...825 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING N AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 68W-72W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N27W. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WELL W OF THE SYSTEM FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 31W-35W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THE ITCZ. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE THIS FEATURE AND IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IS OVER JAMAICA AND E CUBA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 76W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 77W-81W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 11N27W 10N35W 12N47W 10N61W. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 13W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 29N83W 26N87W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 81W-86W. FURTHER S...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 20N88W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF. EXPECT...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE S GULF AND FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A 1006 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 73W-77W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N76W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. SE FLOW DUE TO THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... T.S. DANNY IS THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N62W. ANOTHER 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N64W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N47W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF THE CENTER FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 47W-49W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 28N19W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N30W. $$ FORMOSA