000 AXNT20 KNHC 270000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS CENTERED NEAR 25.2N 71.2W OR ABOUT 390 MILES...625 KM...EAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 735 MILES...1185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AT 26/2100 UTC MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/ WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE CENTER. BUOY 41047 JUST N OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN REPORTING 35 KT WINDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 68W-71W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 65W-69W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 13W/14W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. A MAXIMUM IN SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL W OF THE AXIS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 23W-27W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 21N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE DRY AIR TO THE W OF THE AXIS. THE WAVE IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 39W-44W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS IS THE WAVE THAT T.S. DANNY BROKE AWAY FROM AND IS NOW S OF HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 71W-73W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 10N23W 16N33W 9N50W 9N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION FROM THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 34W-36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 44W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF ALONG 30N85W 26N86W 24N90W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND FLORIDA...THE SE GULF...W CUBA ...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 80W-89W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 95W-99W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N91W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N84W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF. EXPECT...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE S GULF AND FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE AREA WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A 1008 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 72W-78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HAITI NEAR 19N72W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PRODUCE STRONGER TRADEWINDS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... T.S. DAVID IS THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N58W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N31W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 30W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N50W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E AT 26N36W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 19N27W. $$ FORMOSA