000 AXNT20 KNHC 261057 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N67W 24N69W 21N69W...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF 24N69W IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT FLEW THROUGH THIS AREA DURING THE TIMES FROM 25/1900 UTC UNTIL 25/2100 UTC DID NOT SHOW A CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE, BUT THE 27N67W 21N69W SURFACE TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO JUST HAPPENS TO BE IN THE SAME NEIGHBORHOOD AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. SHOWERS ALSO COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM HAITI TO 32N BETWEEN 63W AND 75W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ..TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W FROM 12N TO 22N MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE GOES FROM 33N35W TO 23N38W TO 18N37W AND 12N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. A MIDDLE LATITUDE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH HAS WORKED ITS WAY AROUND THE MORE-LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 36W/37W TROPICAL WAVE...AND IS ALONG 43W/44W FROM 15N TO 25N. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE. IT IS NOTED IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION JUST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO GUATEMALA BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND AND LAND...AND FROM LAND TO 17N BETWEEN 84W AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE ITCZ... FROM 11N16W TO 13N35W 10N43W 8N50W BEYOND 8N63W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N41W 10N46W 8N49W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N35W 8N48W 9N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE WATERS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 26W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO CONTINUES TO HAVE A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...FROM SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO A SPOT THAT IS 100 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 29N85W 27N93W 26N91W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 400 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 22N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 16N73W TO 10N77W NEAR THE THE COLOMBIA COAST AND THE GULF OF URABA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE 88W TROPICAL WAVE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM ONE CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 33N53W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N68W...CONTINUING SOUTHWARD BEYOND THE CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS THE TROUGH THAT IS ON TOP OF THE 27N67W 21N69W SURFACE TROUGH AND THE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS. $$ MT