000 AXNT20 KNHC 260556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOES-12 IR3 SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC...AND THROUGH 0530 UTC FOR METEOSAT-9 IR 10.8 IMAGERY. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMED AT 25/1200 UTC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN ITS VICINITY. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE REMAINED INTACT SINCE 25/1200 UTC WITHIN 150 NM OF 23N67W IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT FLEW THROUGH THIS AREA DURING THE TIMES OF 25/1900 UTC AND 25/2100 UTC DID NOT SHOW A CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE, BUT A SURFACE TROUGH NOW ALONG 27N65W 20N69W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO JUST HAPPENS TO BE IN THE SAME NEIGHBORHOOD AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. SHOWERS ALSO COVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ..TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE GOES FROM 32N32W TO 23N35W TO 18N38W AND 14N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 13N TO 30N BETWEEN 26W AND 40W. A MIDDLE LATITUDE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH HAS WORKED ITS WAY AROUND THE MORE-LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 35W/36W TROPICAL WAVE...AND IS ALONG 43W/44W FROM 14N TO 24N. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE. IT IS NOTED IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION JUST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE LAND AND WATER AREAS FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W...MEANING ACROSS SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE ITCZ... FROM 12N17W TO 11N24W 13N33W 10N44W 8N55W BEYOND 9N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 18W AND 24W...AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N33W 10N40W 8N47W 8N54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO CONTINUES TO HAVE A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...FROM SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. SOME SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 24N89W TO 19N95W IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 400 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 22N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 16N73W TO 10N77W NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST AND THE GULF OF URABA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE 86W/87W TROPICAL WAVE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM ONE CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 33N53W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N68W...CONTINUING SOUTHWARD BEYOND THE CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS THE TROUGH THAT IS ON TOP OF THE 27N65W 20N69W SURFACE TROUGH AND THE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS. $$ MT