000
AXNT20 KNHC 230605
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL AT 23/0600 UTC IS NEAR 40.1N 67.4W 
OR ABOUT 160 MILES/260 KM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET 
MASSACHUSETTS...AND ABOUT 365 MILES/590 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 961 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 75 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AFOS/
WMO HEADERS TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
TCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 39N TO 40N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W TO THE 
SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 
22W. 

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W TO THE SOUTH OF 
18N MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N 
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
 
...THE ITCZ...
FROM 10N20W TO 12N38W 10N50W TO 10N63W NEAR TRINIDAD AND
VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TO THE 
NORTHWESTERN GULF. THIS TROUGH IS PUSHING THE CURRENT GULF COLD 
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN...AND SOME ARE DISSIPATING...FROM TO 
23N TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 94W. AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURVES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO JUST TO THE 
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE AREA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO BETWEEN 
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH 
GUATEMALA.
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 80W
INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA FROM EL SALVADOR TO GUATEMALA...
HONDURAS...AND IN MEXICO FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC EASTWARD
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE DIFFLUENT 
FLOW IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FLOW REGIMES FROM JAMAICA TO THE WATERS
TO THE EAST OF NICARAGUA. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE MOVING WESTWARD IN THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N51W. A TROUGH RUNS
FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 24N53W. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS 
FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 44W AND 56W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
32N22W TO 28N25W TO 28N30W.

$$
MT