000 AXNT20 KNHC 221103 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL AT 22/0900 UTC IS NEAR 33.0N 68.5W OR ABOUT 220 MILES/355 KM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 430 MILES/690 KM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 575 MILES/925 KM TO THE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BILL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST 19 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AFOS/WMO HEADERS TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER TCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SOME OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM HURRICANE BILL COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N TO 36N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW STRETCHES FROM PUERTO RICO TO 40N BETWEEN 52W AND 78W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 32N TO 35N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. OTHER SHOWERS ARE FROM 35N TO 37N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS REPORTED TO BE ALONG 20W/21W AT 22/0000 UTC WAS MOVED TO 15W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE WAVE WAS MOVED BACKWARD IN ORDER TO FIT THE PATTERN OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS. THAT PATTERN SHOWS THAT THE WAVE STILL IS OVER LAND...AND NOT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN YET. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 21W AND 22W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N36W. THIS LOW CENTER IS ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 15N37W 8N36W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 36W AND 37W. OTHER ITCZ SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N60W 11N59W 8N58W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 12N21W TO 12N35W...FROM 12N38W TO 11N48W TO 11N57W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 15N. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N...PART OF THE SAME AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS REMAIN FROM 28.5N TO 30N BETWEEN 83W AND 84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IS INLAND AWAY FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 80W INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA FROM EL SALVADOR TO GUATEMALA... HONDURAS...AND IN MEXICO FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC EASTWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FLOW REGIMES FROM JAMAICA TO THE WATERS TO THE EAST OF NICARAGUA. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD IN THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N51W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 24N53W. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 44W AND 56W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N22W TO 28N25W TO 28N30W. $$ MT