000 AXNT20 KNHC 181058 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL AT 18/0900 UTC IS NEAR 15.5N 49.7W...OR ABOUT 810 MILES...1305 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS REMAIN AT 85 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 105 KT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 47W-52W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH A DRY SLOT W OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 12N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 30W-34W... AND FROM 7N-8N BETWEEN 31W-33W. A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF ANA...IS ALONG 73W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20-25 KT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS THREATEN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 72W-75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 71W-75W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N25W 11N33W 10N37W 14N45W 13N51W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 13W-20W...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 18W-20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 25W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 30N. A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STILL REMAINS HOWEVER OVER THE GULF N OF 25N. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 93W-96W. SURFACE WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SE AT 10-15 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N88W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N101W. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BLANKETS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS TO MOVE OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 88W-91W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER W VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...AND PANAMA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 70W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT... CONVECTION TO MOVE OVER CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N74W 27N81W 23N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 27N67W 25N71W 22N73W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 150 NM N OF THE TROUGH. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N74W. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CUBA IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE S BAHAMAS...ENHANCING SHOWERS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 70W-75W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 20N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N35W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT BILL TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE REMNANTS OF ANA MOVES TOWARDS FLORIDA. $$ FORMOSA