000 AXNT20 KNHC 162351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE IS CENTERED NEAR 29.7N 85.9W AT 17/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 45 NM W OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 80 NM SE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE GULF AND WRN FLORIDA N OF 26N BETWEEN 82W-88W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM BILL IS CENTERED NEAR 12.8N 40.0W AT 16/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 1250 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING WNW AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN 37W-43W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 60.0W AT 17/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 70 NM E OF DOMINICA MOVING W AT 22 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 56W-61W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND EXHIBITS A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. WHILE MOST INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 22W-27W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 7N-18N BETWEEN 20W-26W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. IT REMAINS ON THE ERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SRN MEXICO NEAR 18N93W THAT CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF NRN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE GULF S OF 23N WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 10N20W 10N23W 12N35W 10N43W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS INTERIOR W AFRICA FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 13W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 23W-31W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 42W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE CONTINUES IMPACTING THE NE GULF AND NEARBY COASTAL AREAS FROM SARASOTA FLORIDA TO NEAR CAMERON LOUISIANA BY GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N E OF 93W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FOCUSED ON AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AND EXTENDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WWD TO OVER NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W S OF 22N AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE S/CENTRAL GULF S OF 24N BETWEEN 84W-92W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION RESIDES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N93W. RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FAR WRN AND SW GULF W OF 93W AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND E/CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...YUCATAN CHANNEL AND FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 84W. FARTHER TO THE SE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W/CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM PANAMA TO WRN CUBA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 8N-18N BETWEEN 78W-86W...INCLUDING A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SW NORTH ATLC LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N72W BETWEEN 62W-78W. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND THE UPPER LOW ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-78W... INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. OTHERWISE...FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS WWD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 72W AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA APPROACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM THE SE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW COVERS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC CENTERED NEAR 23N73W AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N69W TO 30N66W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING THE AREA FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 66W-78W...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS. FARTHER TO THE SE OF THE UPPER LOW...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 59W-66W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N33W GIVING THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 25N39W AND IS PROVIDING TROPICAL STORM BILL WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. $$ HUFFMAN