000 AXNT20 KNHC 160548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ANA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 51.5W AT 16/0600 UTC OR ABOUT XXX NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION IS REMOVED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTTING THE AREA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 50W-53W. TROPICAL STORM BILL IS CENTERED NEAR 11.3N 36.6W AT 16/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 785 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 34W-40W. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED ABOUT 80 MILES SW OF TAMPA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MAY BE DEVELOPING A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS AREA WAS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM N/CENTRAL FLORIDA...N OF TAMPA...TO THE SE GULF NEAR 24N85W IS GENERATING AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA COAST AND 85W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE SOMETIME TODAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W/19W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 17W-23W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW ENHANCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVER THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 18N W OF 80W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF 82W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 10N25W 12N31W 8N40W 10N62W AND THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR AN AREA OF INTEREST IN THE E GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE W GULF INTO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE E GULF NEAR 26N83W. A SECOND WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST OFF THE COAST OF ALABAMA S TO 24N87W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS E OF 87W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DRY AIR CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE SW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN IS MAINLY DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE YUCATAN COAST NEAR N BELIZE. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS OCCURRING. FRESH TRADE WINDS S OF A SURFACE RIDGE ARE ADVECTING POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAST MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS WESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 76W. ONE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALONG THE SW COAST OF HAITI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE FLORIDA E COAST FROM PALM BEACH COUNTY TO JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE. AN UPPER LOW NOW COVERS THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N68W WITH A SECOND UPPER LOW TO THE E NEAR 26N52W...ALL SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N61W TO 23N66W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 60W-73W. ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN S FLOW ALOFT TO THE E OF AN SSE TO NNW ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC TO THE NE OF ANA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N54W TO 23N58W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY HIGHS N OF THE REGION...A 1023 MB HIGH NNE OF BERMUDA AND A 1026 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES GIVING THE E ATLC FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. $$ WALLACE