000 AXNT20 KNHC 160004 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2009 ...CORRECTED TO ADD TROPICAL STORM BILL CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOVEMENT... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ANA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 50.4W AT 16/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 635 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM BILL IS CENTERED NEAR 11.3N 35.2W AT 15/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 710 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 220 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. ANALYSIS OF THE BAMAKO MALI UPPER-AIR TIME SECTION AND RECENT 5-DAY SATELLITE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS INDICATE THIS WAVE PASSED BAMAKO NEAR 15/0000 UTC AND IS CURRENTLY PASSING DAKAR SENEGAL AND EMERGING INTO THE FAR ERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED IN THE CLOUD MASS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE AXIS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-16N E OF 22W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATE CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 20N. THE CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N84W AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS UPPER LOW TO 10N81W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N19W 12N30W 10N38W 8N45W 10N62W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 55W-62W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WRN GULF NEAR 25N91W TO SRN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 86W-94W. ALSO...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS OVER THE NE GULF ARE SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS E OF 86W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FURTHER ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY IS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN MOIST SELY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ACROSS THE SW GULF...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 20N97W IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W S OF 20N. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N84W AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO NEAR PANAMA IS FURTHER ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY. ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS OCCURRING. FRESH TRADE WINDS S OF A SURFACE RIDGE ARE ADVECTING POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WWD E OF 73W. ACROSS THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ELY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N E OF 66W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N78W. TO THE W OF THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH...ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING WITHIN 90 NM OFFSHORE W OF 78W. TO THE E... ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N67W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 64W-72W. ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 23N63W TO 30N61W. ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN SLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE E OF AN NORTH-TO-SOUTH-ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N52W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NW OF TROPICAL STORM ANA FROM 19N-28N BETWEEN 49W-56W. FARTHER TO THE E...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS PRESENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N34W. $$ HUFFMAN