000 AXNT20 KNHC 151735 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2009 CORRECTED DISTANCE TO ISLANDS FOR T.S. ANA AND T.D. THREE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ANA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.3N 48.3W AT 15/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 875 NM EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E SEMICIRCLE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL NORTH ATLC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS CENTERED NEAR 11.5N 34.0W AT 15/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 640 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM SE QUADRANT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THIS WAVE. THE 15/1200 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THIS WAVE...WITH E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND E WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITHIN 120 W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 19N. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N84W AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS UPPER LOW TO 11N82W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THIS WAVE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN PORTIONS OF THE E PACIFIC REGION. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS CONVECTION...SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 13N22W 13N28W THEN ALONG 10N35W 10N49W 10N62W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N E OF 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 43W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 55W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE N GULF NEAR 27N91W TO S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 88W-95W. ALSO...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N E OF 88W. OVER THE SE GULF...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-83W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA KEYS. ACROSS THE SW GULF...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W/82W S OF 20N AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS OCCURRING. FRESH TRADE WINDS S OF A SURFACE RIDGE ARE ADVECTING POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WESTWARD FROM 13N-17N E OF 73W. ACROSS THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N E OF 64W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 30N76W. TO THE WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH...ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N W OF 77W. TO THE E...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N66W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 65W-70W. ADDITIONALLY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N62W TO 31N57W. ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE E OF AN NORTH-TO-SOUTH-ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N52W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NW OF TROPICAL STORM ANA FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 51W-55W. FARTHER TO THE E...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS PRESENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N33W. $$ ARIEL COHEN/JOHN CANGIALOSI