000 AXNT20 KNHC 151144 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS UPGRADED AT 15/0900 UTC TO TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL STORM ANA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 46.8W AT 15/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 1010 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUST TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N32W TO 7N29W WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE W OF THE LOW FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 32W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 30W-38W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALL THIS COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 77W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W-83W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 11N22W 12N28W THEN ALONG 9N33W 13N43W 12N53W 11N61W ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AND SW CARIBBEAN THEN ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 51W-58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 10N-13N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 55W-57W. CLUSTERS OF ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS S OVER THE GULF N OF 23N W OF 86W WHILE AN UPPER LOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CUBA TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N79W ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE OVER THE SE GULF TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N83W AND A SECOND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GEORGIA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR TALLAHASSEE INTO THE NE GULF TO NEAR 27N85W. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERATING AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE E GULF S OF 29N E OF 86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF E OF 90W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS OVER S MEXICO COVERING THE SW GULF PROVIDING DRIER AIR AND LIMITING SHOWERS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N83W COVERING THE AREA W OF 77W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...THUS PROVIDING THE AREA E OF 75W WITH DRY UPPER AIR. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW ATLC S OF 26N W OF 77W WITH AN UPPER HIGH NNE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA S OF 26N TO OVER CUBA W OF 77W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OVER S FLORIDA INTO GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS TO THE W OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N65W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 24N69W TO 27N72W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 24N65W TO 30N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 33N57W ALONG 29N61W TO 25N62W. THIS TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS...A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 31N72W...A 1023 MB HIGH N OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N64W...AND A 1023 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N34W. $$ WALLACE