000 AXNT20 KNHC 150549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS REGENERATED CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 45.8W AT 15/0430 UTC OR ABOUT 1075 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUST TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 45W-48W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N32W TO 6N29W WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE W OF THE LOW FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 31W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 31W-35W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE NORTH PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AT 0300 UTC. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVELS AS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 75W-81W AND N OF 20N OVER CUBA BETWEEN 77W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 75W-83W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 12N27W 15N43W THEN ALONG 12N47W 11N61W ACROSS THE NORTH PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA THEN ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 10N-13N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 55W-57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 37W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS S OVER THE N GULF WHILE THE UPPER LOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS COMBINING TO DRAW UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE E GULF BUT IS CURRENTLY ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S/CENTRAL MEXICO COVERS THE SW GULF PROVIDING DRIER AIR LIMITING SHOWERS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT 0300 UTC A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA SSW TO 25N84W. ALTHOUGH THE GULF IS CURRENTLY SOMEWHAT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY FOR S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED JUST SW OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS COVERING THE AREA W OF 75W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W/80W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...THUS PROVIDING THE AREA E OF 75W WITH DRY UPPER AIR. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW ATLC S OF 26N W OF 75W AND UPPER HIGH IS NNE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N76W. AT 0300 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W AND COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FROM 26N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 76W TO 81W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SE GULF LATER THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW IS TO THE W OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N63W AGAIN PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 26N69W TO 32N75W. AT 0000 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N52W ALONG 29N56W TO 25N57W. THIS TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH JUST N OF BERMUDA AND A 1025 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES. $$ WALLACE