000 AXNT20 KNHC 141731 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 41.7W E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE CENTER FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 42W-44W. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. AN EMBEDDED 1008 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 12.1N 26.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE CENTER FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 28W-32W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE S BAHAMAS AND E CUBA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL INVERTED-V FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-23N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS ALSO BROKEN AWAY FROM THIS WAVE AND IS NOW NEAR THE N BAHAMAS ALONG 28N74W TO 25N76W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 71W-74W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 20N MOVING W 20-25 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 12N30W 15N42W 10N50W 11N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION THAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 12W-17W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 23W-32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 52W-62W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N82W TO THE NE GULF AT 27N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 82W-85W. 15 MINUTE LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITHIN 150 NM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N E OF 94W. OUTSIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION...SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO VARIABLE ACROSS THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER S MEXICO CENTERED AT 17N95W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION AND SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT TROPICAL PRECIPITATION TO ADVECT OVER E CUBA AND S FLORIDA DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY ALONG 76W. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM THE SEA OF MARACAIBO VENEZUELA TO COSTA RICA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 71W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER HISPANIOLA...AND OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 12N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N54W TO 25N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N34W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N73W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N62W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N50W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 20N30W. EXPECT THE SPECIAL FEATURE TROPICAL WAVE TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ MRF/RFB